Brent crude oil futures crossed the psychologically significant threshold of $100 per barrel on Saturday, rising approximately one percent as markets absorbed fresh statements from Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowing to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz if the United States continued its military campaign.

The crossing of the $100 mark represented a nearly 35 percent increase since the day before U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on February 28, a surge that economists said was already feeding through to consumer prices across energy-dependent economies worldwide.

West Texas Intermediate, the American crude benchmark, climbed in parallel and was trading above $87 per barrel by midday, levels not seen since the energy market disruptions of 2022. Refined products including diesel and jet fuel were rising even faster due to constrained refining capacity in the Gulf region.

Energy analysts at major banks revised their price forecasts upward following the latest escalation, with several firms projecting Brent could test $130 per barrel by April if diplomatic efforts failed and the Strait remained constrained. Some pointed to the damage at Fujairah port as an additional factor limiting alternative supply routes.

The $100 level had long been considered a critical threshold by policymakers and central bankers, who noted that sustained prices at that level or above historically correlated with economic slowdowns in developed economies. The Federal Reserve was watching oil prices particularly carefully, given that elevated energy costs complicated its inflation management mandate.

Khamenei’s statements on Saturday went further than previous Iranian rhetoric by explicitly naming specific Gulf infrastructure as future targets if American strikes continued. Markets interpreted the threats as credible given Iran’s demonstrated willingness to attack regional facilities in recent days.

The U.S. Treasury’s announcement of temporary sanctions relief on Iranian oil already at sea had provided only modest relief to markets earlier in the week. Analysts noted that the volumes covered by the relief were insufficient to materially offset the supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

European governments were convening emergency energy councils to assess supply security, with several countries accelerating purchases of liquefied natural gas from American and Australian suppliers as alternatives to Gulf energy. The pivot was expected to push LNG prices significantly higher as demand concentrated.

In the United States, gasoline prices at the pump had risen for the third consecutive week and were approaching levels that historically triggered public pressure on Washington to intervene in energy markets. White House officials said they were monitoring the situation closely.

The oil market rally was also being driven by reduced expectations for any near-term diplomatic resolution. Multiple rounds of back-channel contacts between American envoys and Iranian intermediaries had failed to produce a framework for de-escalation, and the rhetoric from both Tehran and Washington had grown sharper rather than more conciliatory in recent days.