Asian stocks open week firmer as dollar eases and Brent tests $94
4 min read, word count: 873Global stocks opened the final week of April on firmer footing and Brent crude tested $94 a barrel on Monday, as traders unwound more of the war premium accumulated through March and prepared for results from three of the largest American technology companies in the heaviest five-day stretch of the first-quarter earnings calendar.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 0.7 percent in morning trade, led by gains in Tokyo and Seoul, while European stock futures pointed to a higher open. S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.4 percent at 0700 GMT, and the dollar index slipped to 102.6, its lowest reading since early March, as currency desks priced in a steadier Federal Reserve path now that energy-driven inflation fears have receded.
Brent crude for June delivery traded as low as $94.10 a barrel in Singapore before edging back to $94.55, down 1.9 percent on the day and roughly 25 percent below the late-March peak of $125. West Texas Intermediate fell to $90.20. Both contracts have now retraced more than three quarters of the spike that followed the war’s onset, and most major banks have pulled their average-price forecasts for the second quarter into the low $90s.
“The path of least resistance for crude is lower, and the question is just how much lower before OPEC+ blinks,” said Hanae Sato, head of commodities strategy at MUFG in Tokyo. “Spare capacity is back in the system, the Strait of Hormuz is functionally normal, and demand from China is running below where the IEA had it three months ago. You can build a case for $88 Brent by Memorial Day without anything dramatic happening.”
The Iran-Israel ceasefire, announced from Islamabad on April 12 and in effect since April 15, entered its 13th day Monday with only minor violations reported, none in the past week. UN monitors deployed to the Strait of Hormuz logged a fifth consecutive uneventful 24-hour period in their morning bulletin, and tanker traffic measured by the Joint Maritime Information Center has been running at 96 percent of January volumes for four straight sessions.
Attention on trading floors has shifted decisively from the geopolitical risk that dominated the March quarter to the corporate results that will set the tone for the rest of the spring. Microsoft reports Tuesday after the close, Apple on Wednesday and Nvidia on Thursday, with consensus calling for combined earnings of roughly $62 billion for the three companies. FactSet’s blended estimate for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth has stabilized at 6.9 percent year over year after drifting down through early April.
“This is the week where the market either confirms that the worst of the war shock is behind it or it doesn’t,” said John Reilly, a senior equity strategist at Citi. “If the hyperscalers reiterate capital spending plans north of $200 billion this year, the rally has room. If even one of them trims, you’ll see a reset across the AI complex.”
Investors will also watch for commentary on the AI moratorium debate, which has shifted from federal to state legislatures after the House Ways and Means Committee killed the Sanders-Ocasio-Cortez bill on April 22. New York and California have both introduced their own versions in the past 10 days, and several large operators have privately signaled that any patchwork of state rules could complicate data-center siting more than a single federal regime.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was indicated 0.5 percent higher at the open after closing Friday at its highest level since February. The euro held at $1.094 against the dollar, helped by stronger-than-expected German Ifo business climate readings released over the weekend. Sterling firmed to $1.272 ahead of a Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting Thursday that economists overwhelmingly expect to leave rates unchanged.
Treasuries gave back a portion of last week’s gains in Asian hours. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note rose three basis points to 4.18 percent, while the 2-year yield ticked up to 3.94 percent. Fed funds futures continue to imply a 64 percent probability of a quarter-point cut at the June 17 meeting, little changed from Friday’s close.
Gold edged down to $2,378 an ounce, extending a three-week pullback from the $2,510 panic high reached April 2. Bitcoin traded just under $68,000, up 1.1 percent on the day and on course to finish April with a high-single-digit gain.
The day’s economic calendar is light, with U.S. durable goods orders due Tuesday and the first read on first-quarter gross domestic product due Wednesday. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect GDP growth of 1.4 percent annualized, slowed by the March supply disruptions but supported by resilient services consumption.
“The macro picture for the next month is essentially earnings, the Fed and oil,” said Layla Hassan, a senior portfolio manager at Brevan Howard in London. “Nothing else is moving the tape unless the ceasefire cracks, and right now there is no sign that it will.”
Energy ministers from the OPEC+ technical committee are scheduled to meet by videoconference Wednesday in what officials described as a routine review. Delegates speaking on condition of anonymity said no production changes were on the agenda, though pressure from member states unhappy with the April price slide is expected to intensify ahead of the full ministerial meeting June 1.
Note: This article was partially constructed using data from LLM.