Global stocks opened the first full week of May on a steadier footing and Brent crude slipped to a fresh three-month low on Monday, with investors largely setting aside the residual risk premium from the Iran war and turning their attention to a Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday and the first April jobs report on Friday.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.2 percent shortly after the European open, Nasdaq 100 contracts added 0.3 percent and the Russell 2000 gained 0.4 percent on the back of a softer dollar. The MSCI Asia Pacific index closed 0.6 percent higher, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 finishing at 39,985 and Korea’s Kospi up 0.8 percent. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng tacked on 1.2 percent after weekend trade data from Beijing showed a smaller-than-expected drop in April exports. The Stoxx 600 was indicated marginally higher at the European open, with London’s FTSE 100 closed for the spring bank holiday.

Brent for July delivery traded as low as $92.15 a barrel in early London hours before clawing back to $92.55, down 1.1 percent on the day and the contract’s weakest since Feb. 2. West Texas Intermediate fell to $88.40. The two benchmarks have now retraced more than 90 percent of the rally that lifted Brent to a March 28 peak above $125 in the early days of the Iran-Israel conflict, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The war bid has essentially been wrung out of crude, and the question now is whether OPEC+ chooses to defend a floor or lets the market hunt for one,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a weekend note. “Saudi messaging through the back half of last week was carefully ambiguous, and that ambiguity is part of the reason Brent printed a two handle this morning.”

A scheduled videoconference of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on Wednesday was expected to take stock of compliance with the April 1 production hike but stop short of recommending policy changes, two delegates familiar with the agenda said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. The next full ministerial gathering is set for Vienna on June 1.

Adding to the supply backdrop, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said over the weekend that Sharara field output had returned to 285,000 barrels a day, near its pre-protest rate, while Iraq’s federal oil ministry confirmed that Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline flows had reached 420,000 barrels a day for a third consecutive session. The Joint Maritime Information Center logged a 14th uneventful 24-hour period in Strait of Hormuz traffic, which has now been running above January averages for nearly two weeks.

For equity desks, the central event of the week is Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee decision. No move on the policy rate is expected, and the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference will be parsed for any softening in the committee’s reaction function after Friday’s softer-than-feared core PCE print. Fed funds futures now imply a 78 percent probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the June 16-17 meeting, up from 71 percent a week earlier, according to CME data. A second cut by September is fully priced.

“Powell does not need to validate June this week, he just needs to not push back,” said John Reilly, a senior equity strategist at Citi, in a televised interview Monday morning. “The market has done a lot of the lifting on its own, and as long as the statement language on inflation risks is acknowledged-but-not-elevated, you have a clean runway into payrolls.”

Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls report is forecast to show a gain of 165,000 jobs, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent and average hourly earnings cooling to 3.7 percent year over year. The print will be the first to fully capture the post-ceasefire labor market and will be scrutinized for any echo of the March consumer pullback in leisure, hospitality and transportation hiring.

Treasuries opened the week little changed. The 10-year U.S. note yielded 4.07 percent in midmorning London trade, down a single basis point, while the 2-year was at 3.79 percent. The dollar index slipped 0.2 percent to 101.9, its weakest level since early March, with the euro pushing to $1.112 and the Japanese yen trading at 146.80 after Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata told a Sapporo audience over the weekend that “the conditions for a further adjustment in policy” were “gradually falling into place.”

On the corporate calendar, this week marks the back end of the megacap earnings stretch and the front end of the broader S&P 500 print. Berkshire Hathaway, which reported a record cash balance of $194 billion over the weekend alongside a modest operating profit miss, leads off Monday’s session. Palantir, AMD and Super Micro report Tuesday after the bell. Disney is on Wednesday’s docket, with the entertainment company’s direct-to-consumer commentary expected to draw outsized attention after the soft prior-quarter subscriber figure. Bristol Myers Squibb, Booking Holdings and ConocoPhillips round out a packed Thursday.

With more than 70 percent of S&P 500 constituents now reported, FactSet’s blended first-quarter earnings growth estimate has firmed to 8.1 percent year over year, up from 6.9 percent at the start of the megacap stretch and the highest growth rate in three quarters. Energy is the lone sector tracking negative earnings growth at minus 7 percent, while communication services and technology are leading at 24 percent and 21 percent respectively.

“The earnings recovery is real, the war discount is gone, and the only swing factor left in the macro tape is the Fed,” said Layla Hassan, a senior portfolio manager at Brevan Howard in London. “If Powell on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday give the bond market what it expects, the path back to S&P 5,700 by month-end is not a stretch.”

Gold extended its pullback for a seventh consecutive session, slipping 0.4 percent to $2,178 an ounce, while copper held near $4.43 a pound on the London Metal Exchange. European natural gas at the Dutch TTF benchmark traded at 29.40 euros per megawatt-hour, its lowest level in 15 months, as a mild start to the spring shoulder season and a heavy LNG import schedule continued to weigh on the contract.

Beyond the United States, mainland Chinese markets remained closed for the Labour Day holiday through Tuesday, removing a key source of volume from the Asian session. The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.0584 to the dollar, the strongest fixing since December and a signal, according to several Hong Kong-based strategists, that Beijing was comfortable allowing a measured appreciation as capital flows steady. Indian equities edged higher, with the Nifty 50 closing at a one-month high after a Reserve Bank of India bulletin pointed to gradually easing inflation pressures.

International Energy Agency officials are expected to publish a revised monthly oil market report Tuesday in Paris that will incorporate the post-ceasefire demand recovery, the OPEC+ April supply increase and the recent Libyan restart. Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their average Brent forecast for the third quarter to $89 from $94 in a note published Sunday evening, citing what they described as “comfortable” inventory cover and a fading geopolitical bid that they said no longer warranted a structural premium.