Brent crude slipped below $122 a barrel in early European trading Wednesday as global markets positioned for an emergency OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna later in the day, with traders and refiners betting the cartel will authorize a substantial production increase aimed at cooling prices that have whipsawed since the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran a month ago.

The front-month June Brent contract was last trading at $121.40, down $2.85, after touching an intraday low of $120.90 shortly after the London open. West Texas Intermediate fell in tandem to $117.20, off $2.60 on the day. Both benchmarks remained well below the $125 closing peak hit late last week but more than 35 percent higher than where they began February.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.6 percent in pre-market trading, with energy and airline shares leading the bid. European stocks opened firmer, the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.4 percent. The dollar slipped a quarter percent against a basket of major currencies. Ten-year Treasury yields held near 4.38 percent.

The Vienna gathering, convened on 72 hours’ notice at the request of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is the first emergency OPEC+ session since the early days of the COVID-19 demand collapse in 2020. Delegations from all 23 member and partner states have confirmed attendance, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak arriving Tuesday evening and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman expected mid-morning local time.

Two delegates briefed on draft communique language, speaking on condition of anonymity because the document had not been finalized, said the group was converging on a phased increase of roughly 1.5 million barrels per day, to be implemented over the second and third quarters. A smaller faction inside the alliance has pushed for a more modest 900,000-barrel hike, citing concerns about a price collapse if a ceasefire is reached before barrels arrive at terminals.

“The market has already priced in something close to a million-and-a-half,” said Helena Wadsworth, head of commodities strategy at Renton Macro in London. “If the headline lands at that figure or above, you get a relief leg lower in crude and a parallel risk-on rotation in equities. If the number disappoints, or if the phasing is back-loaded into the fourth quarter, then we’re back through $125 by Thursday’s New York close.”

The pressure on the producer group has been mounting since mid-March, when Iranian retaliatory strikes on Saudi and Emirati territory raised concerns about regional production and storage, even though damage to actual upstream infrastructure was contained. A Houthi missile salvo against shipping in the southern Red Sea on Sunday, the second in eight days, intensified the political dimension of Wednesday’s meeting. Insurance underwriters at Lloyd’s of London on Monday widened the war-risk surcharge applied to tankers transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait to 0.85 percent of hull value, the highest since 2024.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday repeated his demand that producers “open the taps,” in a post on his social platform shortly after a White House call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. A senior administration official, briefing reporters on Air Force One, said the call had focused on “stability of supply during the current conflict” and described the conversation as constructive. The official declined to characterize what specific volumes had been discussed.

For refiners, the calculus has shifted in tandem with the political pressure. Crack spreads on Gulf Coast gasoline have widened sharply, with the 3-2-1 spread reaching $42 a barrel on Tuesday — its highest level since the summer driving season of 2022. Diesel margins in Northwest Europe are running near $48, a function of the loss of meaningful volumes of Russian and Iranian heavy fuel from the Mediterranean balance.

“Refiners want barrels, but they want light, sweet barrels, and that’s specifically what a Saudi-Emirati-Iraqi increase delivers,” said Marcus Beauchamp, senior energy analyst at Westmount Securities in Houston. “There’s nothing in this hike that helps the medium-sour deficit, which is really the binding constraint on Asian product output right now.”

Asian markets had already absorbed much of the anticipation overnight. The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.2 percent, the Hang Seng gained 0.8 percent, and the Shanghai Composite finished marginally higher. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.1 percent, helped by a rally in shipping names on rumors that some carriers would resume Suez Canal transits if a production hike were confirmed and the Houthi threat assessment moderated.

Currency markets reflected the same cautious optimism. The euro firmed to $1.0890. The Japanese yen, which had strengthened on safe-haven flows for most of March, retreated to 151.20 to the dollar. The Saudi riyal and the UAE dirham, both pegged, were unmoved; one-year forward points on the riyal narrowed slightly, suggesting reduced speculation about peg pressure.

Gold, which had climbed above $2,720 an ounce last week, eased to $2,684. Silver was little changed at $32.40. Industrial metals were mixed; copper on the LME held near $9,840 a tonne, with traders citing offsetting signals from a softer dollar and persistent worries about second-quarter demand from Chinese manufacturers exposed to Gulf-linked supply chains.

The Vienna communique is expected shortly after the formal session adjourns, likely between 16:00 and 18:00 local time. A subsequent press conference led by Prince Abdulaziz and Novak has been scheduled for 19:00.

Several analysts cautioned that the immediate market reaction will hinge less on the headline volume than on the language around compliance and the duration of the increase. “What you want to see is a six-month commitment with quarterly review, not a discretionary monthly call,” said John Reilly, an analyst at Citi. “Without the duration, you don’t get a sustained drawdown in the futures curve, and the strip just snaps back the moment the next escalation headline crosses.”

Trading desks said positioning into the meeting had grown unusually heavy. CME data released Tuesday afternoon showed managed-money net length in Brent and WTI combined at its highest level since June 2022. Open interest in $130 strike June Brent calls had nearly doubled in a week.

Officials at the Vienna secretariat said a final statement would be released to wire services as soon as ministers had signed off, with technical annexes on member-by-member quota adjustments to follow within 24 hours.