Crude futures and global equity contracts pointed to a calm Asian session open Sunday evening, with Brent indicated below $95 a barrel for the first time since the Iran-Israel war began, after Saturday’s prisoner exchange in Doha cleared what traders had treated as the last sizeable headline risk hanging over the five-day-old ceasefire.

Brokers circulating weekend indications said the June Brent contract was being shown at $94.60 to $94.90 in over-the-counter dealing, roughly 60 cents below Friday’s London settlement and more than 24% below the $125 peak struck in late March. West Texas Intermediate was indicated near $90.40. S&P 500 futures were quoted up about 0.3% in early Globex chatter, with Nasdaq 100 futures slightly stronger; the Stoxx 50 future was little changed. Gold was indicated $14 lower at $2,376 an ounce.

“The Doha handover was the choreographed test the market had been watching for, and the parties pulled it off without a wobble,” said John Reilly, head of commodities strategy at Citi in London. “We’re now in the part of the cycle where the risk premium drains out almost mechanically. Our base case has Brent in a $90 to $95 range through end of month, and we think the burden of proof has shifted to the bulls.”

Saturday’s exchange, completed at a Qatari air base outside Doha under joint mediation by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, returned roughly 40 detained foreign nationals to their home countries along with the remains of nine U.S. service members killed during the six-week conflict. Iran in turn received a smaller number of detainees held by the United States and Israel, including individuals affiliated with Hezbollah. There was no public ceremony and no tribunal proceeding; State Department officials briefed reporters in Doha only after each tranche had cleared local customs.

Energy desks treated the smooth handover as confirmation that the diplomatic track set up in Islamabad was operating beyond the headline ceasefire itself. “Markets price process risk, not just kinetic risk,” said Maya Bergstrom, a markets strategist at Nordea in Stockholm. “When you can deliver a complex multi-party exchange on schedule, with no leaks or last-minute defections, that tells traders the mediators have actual control. That is worth several dollars on Brent.”

The week ahead is heavy on tests of that confidence. Earnings season opens in earnest Monday with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson, followed midweek by Netflix, Tesla and Lockheed Martin and a Friday slate that includes Procter & Gamble and American Express. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday note that guidance from transport-heavy and energy-intensive companies would be the single most important input for the next leg of the equity recovery, given that fuel costs spiked sharply during the first quarter before easing in the past two weeks.

OPEC+ technical committees are also scheduled to meet Wednesday in Vienna to review the 1.5-million-barrel-per-day production hike approved on April 1. Delegates have privately signaled there is little appetite to reverse the increase quickly, though Saudi officials have begun floating the idea of a “soft taper” in the second half of the year if Brent settles meaningfully below $90. “The Saudis do not want to be seen pulling the rug out from under a ceasefire they helped negotiate,” said Hossein Marvi, a Dubai-based energy consultant. “But they also do not want $80 oil. Expect language, not action, this week.”

Shipping markets continued the unwind that began Wednesday. Brokers at Howden said war-risk insurance premiums on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz were being quoted at 0.65% of hull value in indicative Sunday markets, down from 0.9% on Friday and a peak of 2.5% during the most acute phase of the war. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, which fell 11% on Wednesday alone, was expected to extend declines when it next prints. Container lines including Maersk and CMA CGM said over the weekend that they would resume normal Red Sea routings beginning Tuesday, conditional on Houthi forbearance.

A single sticking point remained the Houthi posture. The Yemen-based group has condemned each of the two violations of the ceasefire so far — its own launch toward a Saudi tanker last Wednesday and a rocket fired from Iraqi territory on Thursday — but has not announced a formal cessation of operations. “Premium pricing on the Bab el-Mandeb leg will lag premium pricing on Hormuz by at least two weeks,” said Maria Chen, a senior shipping analyst at Clarksons Research. “Owners will believe the Strait first and the Red Sea second.”

Currency markets were quiet in early dealing. The dollar index was indicated little changed at 102.40, with the yen and Swiss franc continuing to give back haven gains accumulated since early March. The euro was steady at $1.097. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields were expected to open the week near 4.04% and ten-year yields near 4.31%, according to interdealer brokers, with traders watching Tuesday’s $42 billion 5-year auction as the first real test of demand now that the geopolitical bid has faded.

Beyond the war unwind, attention is beginning to shift back to the domestic policy calendar in Washington. The AI moratorium bill that passed the Senate on April 7 is expected to face its critical House Ways and Means vote later this week, an outcome that strategists at Morgan Stanley said could move semiconductors and cloud-software names by 3% to 5% in either direction. “The geopolitical chapter is closing and the policy chapter is reopening,” said Tomas Veres, head of U.S. equity strategy at the bank. “Earnings will be the bridge.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Reeves, in remarks released by her office Sunday afternoon, said the administration was “encouraged by the orderly functioning of energy and shipping markets” since the ceasefire took effect and would continue to coordinate with allied central banks on contingency liquidity. She declined to address questions about the size of any Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill, saying only that further details would be released “in the coming weeks as conditions warrant.”