Brent Slides Below $115 as Traders Absorb OPEC+ Barrel Pledge and Stocks Claw Back War Losses
5 min read, word count: 1191LONDON — Brent crude fell below $115 a barrel for the first time since the Iran war began as global equities extended a tentative recovery Friday, the clearest sign yet that traders are starting to believe OPEC+'s pledge to put an additional 1.5 million barrels a day on the market will be honored in physical cargoes rather than fall apart in the politics of an alliance under strain.
Brent for June delivery traded as low as $114.20 in early London dealing before settling near $114.85, down $2.40 on the session and roughly $10 a barrel below its intraday peak of $125.60 reached the morning before the OPEC+ communique. West Texas Intermediate slipped under $111. The retreat carved nearly 8 percent off front-month Brent over the week, the steepest weekly fall in a single contract since the conflict began, though prices remained more than 35 percent above their level on the eve of the war.
European equities opened firmer for a third consecutive session. The pan-European STOXX 600 climbed 0.9 percent in early trading, Germany's DAX added 1.1 percent and France's CAC 40 rose 0.8 percent. London's FTSE 100 advanced 0.6 percent, dragged at the margin by losses in BP and Shell as the integrated majors gave back some of the war premium that had powered them through March. Wall Street futures pointed modestly higher, with S&P 500 e-minis up 0.5 percent and Nasdaq 100 contracts indicating a 0.7 percent rise at the cash open.
"This is the first session where the tape is trading the barrels and not the headlines," said Devon Hartshorn, chief U.S. equity strategist at Pemberton Garrett in New York. "OPEC+ did roughly what the market needed it to do on Wednesday, and the absence of a fresh shock at Hormuz overnight is allowing risk parity desks to take their hands off the panic button. That is not the same as an all-clear, but it is the first constructive sign we have seen in five weeks."
The relief, dealers cautioned, remained fragile. Implied volatility on front-month Brent options stayed near 58 percent, well above the long-run average of 32, and put-call skew suggested traders were still paying up for protection against a renewed spike. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz held at roughly 0.72 percent of hull value, a Lloyd's of London broker said, only modestly off the cycle high of 0.85 percent reached on Monday and more than nine times pre-conflict levels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported late Thursday that commercial crude inventories had risen by 3.4 million barrels in the week to March 27, the first build of more than 2 million since mid-February. Refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast were running at 91.8 percent of capacity, the EIA said, with gasoline inventories rebuilding faster than analysts had expected. Diesel stocks remained tight, however, reflecting strong U.S. military demand and continued European purchasing ahead of summer agricultural draws.
Saudi Arabia's state producer Saudi Aramco began notifying Asian customers Friday of full nominations for May-loading cargoes, two trading sources familiar with the allocations said, an early operational signal that the kingdom intended to deliver on the headline figure agreed in Vienna. The United Arab Emirates' Adnoc and Kuwait Petroleum Corp. were expected to issue parallel guidance over the weekend. Russia, which Riyadh's delegates had described mid-week as "resistant but not obstructive," was understood to be contributing roughly 250,000 barrels a day to the package, drawn largely from condensate streams that had been backed up at Baltic ports.
"The credibility test of any OPEC+ announcement is the loading program, not the press release," said John Reilly, a senior energy analyst at Citi in London. "We are seeing the loading program. If that pattern holds through the first ten days of May, the curve should continue to flatten and the geopolitical premium embedded in front-month should compress by another $4 to $6."
The dollar eased against most major currencies, with the DXY dollar index slipping 0.3 percent to 104.65, its lowest in a week. The euro recovered to $1.0712, helped by a Bloomberg survey showing eurozone composite purchasing managers' indices for March holding above 50 despite the war shock. The Japanese yen weakened modestly as haven flows partially reversed, trading at 149.80 to the dollar. Spot gold, which had touched a record $3,418.60 on Monday, slid 1.4 percent to $3,352 an ounce, on track for its first weekly decline since the conflict began.
Sovereign bond markets reflected the same gentle unwind. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose two basis points to 3.94 percent in London trading, German Bund yields edged up to 2.39 percent and U.K. gilts to 4.11 percent. Investment-grade credit spreads tightened by three basis points on the Markit iTraxx Europe index, the second consecutive day of compression after a punishing March.
Sector performance across European bourses captured the same rotation under way in global portfolios. Airlines, autos and luxury names led gains, with Lufthansa up 3.2 percent, Stellantis adding 2.4 percent and LVMH climbing 1.8 percent. Defense contractors, the unambiguous winners of the past five weeks, gave back ground: Rheinmetall fell 2.1 percent in Frankfurt and BAE Systems lost 1.4 percent in London. Energy majors traded mixed, with refining-heavy names such as Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni outperforming upstream-tilted peers.
"What you are watching this morning is the market beginning to discount a ceiling, not a floor," said Marta Liewen, head of metals and macro strategy at Hauck Aufhauser Lampe in Frankfurt. "Investors are not declaring victory on inflation or on the war. They are simply acknowledging that the right tail of the oil distribution has been trimmed by what Vienna delivered, and that is enough to put some money back to work."
The International Energy Agency in Paris said Friday it would defer a previously contemplated coordinated strategic-reserve release pending the May loading program, but kept a 60-million-barrel package "on the shelf and ready to deploy" should physical markets tighten again. "Our barrels are an insurance policy, not a substitute," said Camille Devereux, an IEA spokeswoman, in a written statement.
U.S. payrolls data for March, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, loomed as the next test for risk sentiment, with consensus forecasts calling for a gain of 178,000 jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.0 percent. Strategists said a print in line with expectations would likely cement the modest weekly rebound, while a hot reading risked reigniting the debate over whether the Federal Reserve would be forced to delay rate cuts the futures market has penciled in for the second half of the year.
Traders said attention through the New York session would focus on whether Brent could close the week with a settlement under $115 a barrel, a level several technical desks have flagged as the gateway to a test of $108. Officials in Vienna said OPEC+ ministers would reconvene by video conference on April 18 to review compliance and assess whether further action was warranted.
Note: This article was partially constructed using data from LLM.