Crude oil prices fell for a third straight session and U.S. equity futures pointed higher Friday as traders grew more confident the Iran-Israel ceasefire that took effect Tuesday would hold, despite a Houthi missile launch and a rocket fired from Iraqi territory earlier in the week.

Brent crude was trading at $99.40 a barrel by 7:30 a.m. in London, down 1.8 percent on the day and roughly 21 percent below the $125 peak hit in late March. West Texas Intermediate slipped to $95.20. The declines reversed a brief overnight spike Wednesday that followed the Houthi launch toward a Saudi tanker in the southern Red Sea, which was intercepted without damage.

“The market has been pricing a binary outcome for weeks, and what we are seeing now is the unwinding of that risk premium one session at a time,” said John Reilly, head of commodities strategy at Citi. “There is still a war premium embedded — we estimate $8 to $10 — but it is shrinking with every day the ceasefire holds.”

The relief was broader than oil. Asian equities closed firmly higher, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.6 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 2.1 percent. European bourses opened in the green; the Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.9 percent by mid-morning. S&P 500 futures pointed to an opening gain of about 0.7 percent, which would put the index on track to recoup most of its losses since the war began on March 1.

Volume, which had thinned dramatically during the most acute war weeks, returned in size. The London Stock Exchange reported its busiest two-day stretch in six weeks. Eurex saw a sharp pickup in Bund and Euro Stoxx 50 futures activity. “When you see real money come back, not just systematic flow, that tells you portfolio managers are willing to take a view again,” said Maya Bergstrom, a markets strategist at Nordea in Stockholm.

The OPEC+ production hike announced April 1 in Vienna — a roughly 1.5 million barrel-per-day increase phased in over four weeks — has begun to flow through cargo schedules, and traders said physical differentials in the Mediterranean and West African markets were weakening. Saudi Aramco was expected to cut official selling prices for May-loading cargoes when it publishes its monthly list early next week, according to two refining sources who spoke on condition of anonymity because the prices have not been released.

Energy Secretary Mark Doheny, speaking to reporters Thursday evening, said U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve refilling would resume “on a measured basis” later this month, having been paused during the war’s peak. The reserve drew down by roughly 21 million barrels in March and the first week of April, according to Energy Information Administration data.

Bond markets reflected the same easing of stress. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to 4.18 percent as investors rotated out of safe-haven positions. German Bunds sold off in sympathy, with the 10-year yield up three basis points to 2.41 percent. Gold, which had pushed above $2,900 an ounce at the war’s peak, traded at $2,760, its lowest level in five weeks.

The dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. The euro climbed back above $1.09, and the Japanese yen strengthened to 149.20 per dollar — its strongest level since early March, when haven flows had pushed it sharply weaker against the dollar.

Insurance and shipping markets, which had been among the most disrupted during the conflict, showed early signs of normalization. The Lloyd’s Joint War Committee, which sets risk designations for shipping, said Thursday it would review its listing of the northern Strait of Hormuz and parts of the southern Red Sea “in light of evolving conditions on the ground.” War-risk premiums on tankers transiting the strait had spiked from roughly 0.05 percent of hull value before the war to as much as 1.2 percent in early April, according to broker Howden Group. Brokers said quotes had eased to around 0.8 percent by Friday morning.

“We are not back to pre-war pricing, and frankly we should not be — there have been violations and the political situation is fragile,” said Karim Mansour, a Dubai-based maritime insurance broker. “But underwriters are quoting again, and that itself is a meaningful shift. A week ago some of them were not.”

Container shipping, which had rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope for months even before the war intensified the disruption, was slower to respond. Maersk and CMA CGM both said they would maintain Cape routings on Asia-Europe services through May while monitoring Bab el-Mandeb security. Spot freight rates on the Shanghai-to-Rotterdam route, as tracked by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, eased 4.2 percent week-on-week but remained more than 60 percent above pre-war levels.

Earnings season looms as the next test of the rebound. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all reported Wednesday before the ceasefire’s full implications had registered; results were mixed, with trading desks benefiting from war-driven volatility while loan-loss provisions ticked up. Apple, Microsoft and Tesla are scheduled to report in the final week of April, and analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note Friday they expected guidance to “lean cautious” given supply-chain disruption costs from the conflict.

Asian markets are likely to set the tone again when they reopen Monday. Officials at the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China have signaled no immediate policy adjustments are planned in response to the easing oil prices, though analysts said quietly that the calculus on rate cuts in Tokyo could shift if crude continued to weaken into May.

Trading desks said positioning data would be the next focus, with Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports due late Friday expected to show speculators trimming long crude positions for the first time since February. Investors would be watching the weekend closely for any further ceasefire violations, several portfolio managers said, before committing to a sustained rotation back into risk assets.