Brent crude closed the week below $110 a barrel for the first time since the Iran war began, capping a five-session retreat as the OPEC+ output increase announced in Vienna on Tuesday began to filter into physical cargoes and trading desks reassessed the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed prices to a $125 peak two weeks earlier.

The June Brent contract settled at $109.40 on Friday on ICE, down $2.85 on the day and $9.20 lower than the prior Friday’s close. West Texas Intermediate finished at $104.10, off $2.60. The pullback came despite a Houthi missile launch toward a Saudi Aramco facility near Yanbu early Friday — intercepted, according to a Saudi defense statement — and reports of fresh Israeli strikes on infrastructure outside Isfahan overnight Thursday.

“The barrels are showing up. That’s what matters this week,” said Maren Loftus, head of oil research at Helvetia Commodities in Geneva. “Saudi loadings for May are already being marked up, the UAE has been quietly pre-positioning, and the prompt physical differentials in the Med have come in hard. The tape is now arguing with itself — strikes one hour, supply the next — and supply is winning the argument.”

The cartel and its allies, meeting in Vienna on April 1, agreed to add roughly 1.5 million barrels a day in stages through June, the largest coordinated production unwinding since the 2022 energy shock. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman framed the move as a “stability mandate” rather than a political signal, but several delegates briefed reporters on the sidelines that pressure from Washington and from Asian consumer governments — particularly New Delhi and Tokyo — had shaped the magnitude of the hike.

Asian buyers have been the most visible beneficiaries. Indian refiners, which had been paying spot premiums of more than $4 over benchmark for Middle East grades during the late-March squeeze, reported May-loading term volumes restored close to pre-war contracted levels. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday that strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns, which had been running at about 200,000 barrels a day, would be paused beginning Monday.

Equities took some of the relief. The S&P 500 finished the week up 2.1%, its first positive week since the conflict began, paring its drawdown from the March highs to about 2.4%. The Dow added 1.6% on the week and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.7%, helped by a rebound in semiconductor names that had been hit hardest by the late-March risk-off. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 climbed 1.9% and London’s FTSE 100, weighed by its heavy energy exposure, lagged with a 0.4% gain.

Bond markets continued to price in a softer growth path. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 3.91%, down 14 basis points, after a soft March jobs print Friday morning showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 138,000, below the 175,000 consensus. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%.

“The labor data, on its own, would have moved the front end materially. With oil where it is and the war still live, the Fed is still pinned,” said John Reilly, a rates strategist at Citi. “But the bias has shifted. The June meeting is genuinely a coin flip again.”

Futures markets implied a roughly 48% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in June by Friday’s close, up from about 22% a week earlier. The dollar index slipped 0.6% on the week against a basket of major currencies, with the largest moves against the yen and the Swiss franc.

Insurance and shipping costs, which had become a quieter but punishing tax on global trade since early March, eased modestly. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 4.3% on the week. War-risk premiums for transits of the Strait of Hormuz, which spiked to about 2.25% of hull value in late March, were quoted closer to 1.6% by Friday, according to two London-based marine underwriters. The Suez Canal Authority reported daily transits had recovered to roughly 78% of pre-war volumes, up from a low of 61% two weeks earlier.

Gold, which had touched a record $2,498 an ounce in late March, finished the week at $2,402, off 1.9%. The metal’s pullback tracked the softening in oil and a parallel decline in implied equity volatility, with the Cboe Volatility Index closing at 24.1, down from a March 27 peak of 32.7.

Not all of the week’s news was risk-on. European natural gas, where exposure to Mideast LNG cargoes remains acute, rose 6.4% on the TTF benchmark amid reports that two tankers diverted from the Persian Gulf last weekend had been re-routed through longer voyages. German industrial groups renewed calls for the European Commission to coordinate emergency procurement, and Economy Minister Robert Habeck’s office said it was “monitoring shipment schedules into the second half of April.”

In commodities beyond energy, copper climbed 1.8% on the week to $4.46 a pound on the Comex, aided by a softer dollar and a stronger-than-expected Caixin services PMI out of China. Wheat futures fell 2.7% as Black Sea export corridors stayed open and Egypt’s state buyer secured a 360,000-tonne tender at competitive prices.

The week ahead will be dominated by U.S. bank earnings, the first read of which arrives Wednesday with JPMorgan Chase, and by any signals from the Islamabad track on Iran. Traders said positioning into Monday’s open was cautious. “Nobody wants to be short crude over a weekend with this much going on,” Loftus said. “But nobody wants to be long either.”

Analysts at Goldman Sachs trimmed their second-quarter Brent forecast to $104 from $116, citing the OPEC+ decision and faster-than-expected Saudi spare-capacity activation. The bank kept its year-end target at $92, contingent on what it called “a credible de-escalation path” emerging from the mediation tracks underway in Pakistan and the Gulf.

Markets will reopen Sunday evening in Asia. Brent options pricing implied a roughly $4 move in either direction by Wednesday’s settlement.