India Watches Warily as Pakistan Claims Diplomatic Spotlight Over Iran Talks
4 min read, word count: 978India has begun a quiet but pointed diplomatic push to remind Western and Gulf partners of its own regional weight, as Pakistan’s hosting of the Islamabad peace talks on the Iran war reshapes South Asia’s geopolitical optics in ways that have unsettled officials in New Delhi. In a series of meetings on Monday at the External Affairs Ministry in South Block, senior Indian diplomats briefed ambassadors from the European Union, the Gulf Cooperation Council and Japan on what they described as India’s “indispensable role” in regional energy security, anti-piracy operations and Indian Ocean stability, according to two diplomats who attended the sessions.
The flurry of activity reflected what one senior Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, called a “narrative correction” — an effort to ensure that Pakistan’s sudden rehabilitation as a mediator did not translate into broader strategic gains at India’s expense. The Islamabad talks, now in their third day and convened by Pakistan alongside Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkish facilitation, have given Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government a stage that Indian planners had not anticipated. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has appeared alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan in carefully managed photo opportunities that have dominated South Asian newspaper front pages over the weekend.
“India is the largest democracy in this region and the largest importer of crude in the Indian Ocean basin,” External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said in remarks to reporters before departing for a previously scheduled visit to Singapore. “Our position on the conflict has been consistent: restraint, dialogue, protection of civilian shipping. We do not require a chair at every table to make those positions felt.” Asked specifically about Pakistan’s mediating role, Jaishankar offered only that India welcomed “any sincere effort that brings the parties closer to a verifiable de-escalation.”
The diplomatic choreography masked genuine anxiety inside the Indian establishment, according to analysts who track the country’s foreign policy. India has spent the better part of a decade cultivating relationships with both Tehran and Riyadh, balancing its dependence on Gulf crude and remittance flows from millions of Indian workers in the region against a long-standing strategic partnership with Iran centered on the Chabahar port. The Iran war, now in its fourth week, has disrupted those balances in ways that have given Pakistan — historically the more isolated South Asian power on questions of Gulf diplomacy — an unexpected opening.
“For India, the worry is less about Pakistan’s specific mediation and more about what comes after,” said Anirudh Menon, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “If the Islamabad track produces a credible framework, even a partial one, Pakistan will have earned diplomatic capital that it can convert into closer Saudi financial support, better access to Gulf labor markets, and possibly a recalibrated American posture on Kashmir and counterterrorism issues. Those are the second-order consequences that South Block is gaming out.”
Indian energy planners have additional reasons for concern. The country imports nearly 85 percent of its crude, and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz had already forced Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum to draw down strategic reserves at a faster pace than at any point since the 2022 Ukraine shock. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri convened a meeting Monday morning with the heads of the three state-owned refiners to review contingency supply arrangements with Russia, the United States and Brazil. Officials briefed on the meeting said India had secured commitments for additional Russian Urals cargoes at favorable pricing, though logistical bottlenecks through the Suez and Cape routes were complicating delivery schedules.
The Modi government has also faced domestic political pressure to take a more visible position on the conflict. Opposition leaders in the Lok Sabha have demanded a special session of Parliament to discuss India’s strategy, and a coalition of left-leaning parties organized a rally in Mumbai over the weekend calling on the government to formally condemn what protesters described as the war’s humanitarian toll. The government has resisted those calls, mindful that any sharp public stance risked alienating one of the several parties whose cooperation India would need to navigate the post-war regional order.
Relations with Pakistan, meanwhile, have entered a peculiar phase. Cross-border firing along the Line of Control has remained subdued throughout March, in what Indian military analysts described as a deliberate Pakistani effort to project stability while hosting the talks. Indian intelligence assessments shared with select foreign partners reportedly noted that Pakistan’s military establishment, led by Army Chief General Asim Munir, had directed forward commanders to avoid any provocations that might disrupt the diplomatic momentum. “The Pakistanis understand that their moment depends on appearing responsible,” said retired Lieutenant General Vikram Sondhi, a former director general of military operations. “How long that discipline holds once the cameras leave Islamabad is a separate question.”
In Tokyo, where Jaishankar will travel after Singapore, Indian officials hope to formalize a tripartite consultation mechanism with Japan and Australia on Indian Ocean security — a forum that would underscore India’s centrality to any post-war regional architecture. European diplomats said they expected India to also seek a more prominent role in any eventual monitoring or verification arrangements that might emerge from Islamabad, possibly by offering naval assets for shipping protection in coordination with the European-led maritime mission already operating in the region.
The broader contest playing out across South Asia this week was, in the view of several Indian commentators, a reminder that diplomatic standing in a multipolar world was not a fixed inheritance but had to be actively defended. For New Delhi, the challenge of the coming weeks would be to ensure that Pakistan’s moment in Islamabad did not redraw the longer-term map of South Asian influence in ways that proved difficult to reverse. Indian officials said additional consultations with Gulf and Western partners were planned in the days ahead.
Note: This article was partially constructed using data from LLM.