Microsoft clears Azure bar as futures firm into Apple print and Brent grinds lower
5 min read, word count: 1048Microsoft delivered a stronger-than-expected first-quarter Azure print after the closing bell Tuesday, pulling U.S. equity futures higher in overnight trade and steadying a market already softened by another leg lower in crude as traders prepared for Apple’s evening earnings release and the first official read on first-quarter U.S. growth.
S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.6 percent shortly after the European open Wednesday, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.1 percent on the back of an after-hours rally in Microsoft and a sympathy bid in semiconductors, and Russell 2000 contracts were 0.3 percent firmer. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.9 percent higher at 40,180 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.4 percent, helped by mainland tech names tracking the U.S. session. European bourses opened mixed, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2 percent as gains in banks and luxury offset a 1.6 percent drop in the energy subindex.
Microsoft’s headline numbers came in modestly above Street expectations across the board. Revenue of $74.8 billion topped consensus of $73.1 billion, earnings per share of $3.42 beat the $3.28 estimate, and Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 33 percent year over year, half a point above last quarter and slightly ahead of the 31 percent that Wedbush and Morgan Stanley had penciled in. Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood told analysts on the call that the company would lift its fiscal-year capital spending range to $108 billion to $112 billion, from a prior $103 billion to $108 billion guided on the company’s January call.
“The print is exactly the kind of thing the buyside needed to hear,” said John Reilly, a senior equity strategist at Citi, in a note circulated to clients overnight. “Azure accelerated, capex went up rather than down, and Hood didn’t blink once on the state-moratorium question. If Apple can clip the bar tonight on services and AI hardware commentary, this tape can grind into Friday.”
Shares of Microsoft traded 3.8 percent higher in after-hours dealing and were indicated up 3.4 percent in pre-market trade Wednesday. Nvidia rose 4.1 percent in after-hours, AMD added 2.8 percent and Broadcom 2.6 percent. The reaction in compute-infrastructure suppliers extended into Wednesday morning, with several optical-networking and liquid-cooling names indicated 5 percent or more higher pre-market in New York.
Crude markets moved the other way. Brent for June delivery slipped to $92.85 a barrel in early London trade, a decline of 1.1 percent and the contract’s lowest level since Feb. 19, before any of the war risk premium had built up. West Texas Intermediate fell to $88.95. Libya’s National Oil Corporation said in a statement Wednesday morning that Sharara was now producing about 220,000 barrels a day, up from the 180,000 reported Monday, and reiterated that the field would return to its pre-stoppage rate of roughly 300,000 within the next week. The OPEC+ technical committee, meeting by videoconference Wednesday, was not expected to issue formal recommendations, according to two delegates speaking on condition of anonymity, though one said members from Africa and South America had asked for a discussion of compliance with the April 1 production increase.
“What is happening in crude right now is exactly what you would have drawn up on a whiteboard at the start of the year if you knew the war ended in April,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Hormuz is normal, the Saudi-UAE buffer is back, Libya is adding, and Chinese refinery runs in March came in below seasonal. The question is whether $90 is the level that gets the cartel on the phone.”
The Iran-Israel ceasefire entered its 15th day Wednesday with no new violations reported in nine days, according to UN monitors at the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker throughput has now run within 3 percent of the January average for seven consecutive sessions, and London war-risk premiums were being quoted at roughly 0.3 percent of hull value, down from a March peak above 0.8 percent.
Wednesday’s corporate calendar is anchored by Apple’s after-the-bell release. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect revenue of $93.6 billion, earnings per share of $1.64, and services revenue growth of about 13 percent. The closely watched questions are whether the company will quantify its 2026 spending on AI infrastructure and whether iPhone unit guidance is trimmed to reflect the March supply disruptions tied to wartime shipping. Apple shares closed Tuesday at $214.30.
European earnings included HSBC, BP and Mercedes-Benz. HSBC reported first-quarter pre-tax profit of $9.1 billion, ahead of consensus of $8.7 billion. BP missed on the headline figure with adjusted earnings of $2.4 billion against an expected $2.9 billion, and said it would slow its share-buyback program for the second quarter; shares dropped 4.5 percent in London. Mercedes-Benz lowered its full-year margin guidance to 8 to 9 percent from 9 to 10 percent, citing weaker mix in China.
Treasury markets gave back a portion of Tuesday’s gains as the equity bid took hold. The 10-year U.S. note yield rose three basis points to 4.14 percent by mid-morning London, while the two-year was at 3.88 percent. Fed funds futures continued to imply roughly a 70 percent probability of a quarter-point cut at the June 16-17 meeting. The DXY index was 0.3 percent weaker, the euro pushed through $1.108, and the yen traded at 147.10.
“The setup heading into Apple and the GDP print is the most constructive it has been since February,” said Layla Hassan, a senior portfolio manager at Brevan Howard in London. “You have falling oil, falling yields, a softer dollar and a megacap that just reaccelerated its cloud business. Unless the data tomorrow is genuinely ugly, this rally has a few more sessions in it.”
The Commerce Department’s advance estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product, due Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, is expected to print at 1.4 percent annualized, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker at 1.2 percent. Friday brings the March core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to come in at 2.7 percent year over year. International Energy Agency officials said an updated monthly oil market report scheduled for Wednesday afternoon Paris time would incorporate revised demand estimates from China and a recalibrated supply path that takes the Libyan restart into account.
Note: This article was partially constructed using data from LLM.