Brent crude tumbled more than 8% in early Asian trade and U.S. equity futures jumped on Sunday after negotiators in Islamabad announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel set to take effect at 00:00 GMT on April 15, the largest single-session repricing of war risk since fighting broke out in early March.

The benchmark June Brent contract opened down $9.40 at $98.20 a barrel before steadying near $99 in thin weekend dealing, according to ICE settlement data circulated to brokers. West Texas Intermediate slid to $94.10. S&P 500 futures climbed 2.1% in the Globex session, Nasdaq 100 futures added 2.7%, and the Stoxx 50 future was indicated 1.8% higher ahead of Monday’s European open. Gold gave back $46 to $2,318 an ounce, and the dollar weakened against most majors as haven flows reversed.

“This is the trade that’s been telegraphed for a week, but seeing it on paper still moved the tape,” said Priya Venkataraman, head of commodities strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore, in a note to clients. “The question now is how much of the $30 war premium comes out, and how fast.”

The joint statement issued in the Pakistani capital — signed by mediators from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt and acknowledged by representatives of Iran, Israel and the United States — set Wednesday at midnight Greenwich Mean Time as the start of a 72-hour standdown that the parties said would be followed by a graduated drawdown of regional deployments. Markets had been pricing roughly a 60% probability of a deal by month-end, based on options skew on Brent and the CBOE Volatility Index, both of which collapsed in the first hour of trade.

Front-month Brent had peaked at $125.40 on March 18 and had been hovering near $108 since the April 1 OPEC+ production hike out of Vienna. Traders said the combination of the Saudi-led barrel additions, easing freight insurance rates through the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of a verified halt to strikes had drawn the curve into deep backwardation, with December 2026 Brent now indicated at $84.

John Reilly, an oil analyst at Citi in London, said his desk was modeling a Brent fair value of $88 to $92 if the truce holds for thirty days, with downside risk to $80 if Iranian export licenses are extended and Saudi Arabia maintains its current output. “The structural overhang is real,” he said. “OPEC+ added 1.5 million barrels a day at Vienna, and most of that capacity doesn’t come off the market just because the shooting stops.”

Equity strategists pointed to the energy sector and defense primes as the day’s largest expected losers, with industrials, airlines and consumer discretionary names positioned to gain. Pre-market indications for U.S. carriers United, Delta and American showed gains of 5% to 7%. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman were quoted 3% lower in over-the-counter dealing. Saudi Aramco was indicated 4.5% lower for Sunday’s Riyadh session, which trades while Western markets are closed.

Asian shares opened sharply higher in the Monday session that began Sunday evening Eastern time. The Nikkei 225 was up 2.4% an hour into trade, the Kospi gained 2.9%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 1.6%. The Shanghai Composite, which had been more insulated from the conflict, was 0.9% higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was set to follow at the open with shipping and insurance names leading.

Currency desks reported heavy flows out of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, two beneficiaries of the war bid, with the dollar-yen pair climbing to 153.40 from 151.10 at Friday’s New York close. The Israeli shekel firmed 1.6% against the dollar in offshore quotes. The Iranian rial, which trades only in informal markets, was reported by Bonbast at 78,500 to the dollar, sharply stronger than the 92,000 quoted last week.

Insurance markets moved nearly as fast as oil. Lloyd’s syndicates that have been pricing Gulf hull war risk at premiums equivalent to 0.8% of vessel value indicated quotes near 0.35% over the weekend, according to two London-based brokers who spoke on condition of anonymity because the rates had not been formally published. Container shipping rates on the Asia-to-Europe lane, which had climbed 28% since March 1 as carriers rerouted around the Cape, are expected to begin easing once Red Sea transits resume, said Lars Brennan, a freight analyst at Xeneta.

Treasury markets reflected a partial reversal of the flight to quality. The 10-year U.S. note yield was indicated at 4.36% in pre-market trading, up from Friday’s 4.22% close, as traders unwound bets on emergency Federal Reserve easing and rotated back into risk. Fed funds futures now imply two quarter-point cuts this year, down from a peak of four priced at the height of the conflict.

“The next 96 hours matter more than the announcement itself,” said Hannah Eldridge, chief economist at BNY Mellon, in a televised interview on Bloomberg. “If the parties honor the standdown window — no last-mile strikes, no Houthi spoiler operations — then we get a full normalization trade by mid-week. If somebody breaks ranks, half of this move comes back.”

A senior U.S. Treasury official, speaking on background, said the department was in contact with the Federal Reserve and major dealer banks over the weekend to monitor settlement risk during the unusual Sunday session. Officials said they expected orderly trading at Monday’s New York open and that further communications with market participants would be issued through the trading day.