U.S. equity futures pointed to a modestly firmer open Tuesday ahead of Microsoft’s after-the-bell earnings, while Brent crude slid through $94 a barrel in early London trade after Libya’s National Oil Corporation confirmed the partial restart of the Sharara field, adding fresh barrels to a market already adjusting to the post-ceasefire unwind.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.3 percent shortly after the European open, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5 percent, and Russell 2000 contracts trailed slightly. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.7 percent higher at 39,840 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.1 percent, lifted by Chinese internet names ahead of Politburo signaling expected later in the week. European bourses opened mixed, with the Stoxx 600 flat as gains in luxury and banks offset weakness across oil majors.

Brent for June delivery traded at $93.85 by mid-morning London, a decline of 1.4 percent and the contract’s lowest level since Feb. 24, before any of the war risk premium had been priced in. West Texas Intermediate fell to $89.70. Both benchmarks have now retraced more than 80 percent of the rally that took crude to a March 28 peak above $125 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The proximate trigger was Libyan production. National Oil Corporation chairman Farhat Bengdara told reporters in Tripoli late Monday that Sharara, the country’s largest oil field, was producing about 180,000 barrels a day after a three-week force majeure prompted by a protest at the Zawiya export terminal had been lifted. Bengdara said the company expected to return Sharara to its pre-stoppage rate of roughly 300,000 barrels a day “within ten days, security conditions permitting.”

“This is the kind of supply surprise the market simply was not positioned for,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, on a client note circulated overnight. “On top of the OPEC+ April 1 increase that is still ramping, and on top of fully restored Strait of Hormuz throughput, you now have something like 250,000 incremental Libyan barrels showing up before the summer driving season. The path of least resistance is lower until we hear something different from Riyadh.”

Saudi officials have so far declined to comment publicly on the speed of the decline. Asked at a Riyadh conference Monday whether Saudi Arabia would consider a unilateral production cut, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said only that “the kingdom watches the market every day” and that the next scheduled OPEC+ meeting on June 4 in Vienna would assess “the totality of conditions.” Two delegates familiar with internal discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity, said no extraordinary meeting was being contemplated.

For equities, the immediate focus is corporate results. Microsoft is scheduled to report after the closing bell Tuesday, with analysts at Wedbush and Morgan Stanley expecting Azure revenue growth to come in around 31 percent year over year, slightly below the 33 percent posted last quarter but still well ahead of broader cloud peers. Investors will pay particular attention to capital expenditure guidance after Alphabet and Meta last week jointly raised their combined 2026 spending plans by more than $40 billion.

“The buyside has more or less stopped worrying about the federal AI moratorium since it died in House Ways and Means last Tuesday, but they still want to hear that capex discipline exists somewhere in this group,” said Stacy Rasgon, a senior semiconductor analyst at Bernstein, in a televised interview Monday evening. “If Microsoft signals it’s matching the others dollar-for-dollar on data center build-out, Nvidia probably opens limit up Wednesday.”

Apple reports Wednesday after the bell and Nvidia, which shifted its fiscal calendar, reports Thursday. Together the three names account for slightly more than 18 percent of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.

Monday’s New York session had ended with the S&P 500 up 0.2 percent at 5,623, its highest close since Feb. 21. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.4 percent. Defensive sectors lagged for a third consecutive session, with utilities down 0.6 percent and consumer staples flat, while semiconductors and industrials led. Energy stocks finished 1.3 percent lower as crude weakened into the close.

Treasury yields fell across the curve Monday as oil’s decline reinforced the disinflation narrative. The 10-year U.S. note ended the New York session at 4.11 percent, down four basis points, and was little changed in European trade Tuesday. The two-year was at 3.84 percent. Fed funds futures now imply a 71 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the June 16-17 meeting, up from 62 percent a week ago, according to CME data.

“What we are watching for is whether the data this week confirms what the oil tape is already telling you,” said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, in remarks to a Bloomberg podcast Monday. “Thursday’s GDP print will set the tone on the growth side, and Friday’s core PCE will tell us how much of the March commodity shock actually made it into services inflation. If both come in soft, the case for a June cut hardens significantly.”

First-quarter U.S. GDP, due Thursday morning, is expected to print at 1.4 percent annualized, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, sharply slower than the prior quarter’s 2.6 percent reading and reflecting both the March consumer pullback and an inventory drawdown tied to wartime shipping disruptions. The Commerce Department’s advance estimate will not capture much of the April rebound that high-frequency indicators have started to register.

Outside the United States, the dollar resumed its slide. The DXY index was 0.4 percent weaker by midday in London, with the euro pushing to $1.107 and the Japanese yen at 147.40 after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda told a parliamentary committee that the central bank “would not hesitate” to tighten further if wage growth remained on its current trajectory. Sterling traded at $1.262, helped by a stronger-than-expected April CBI retail sales survey.

Gold weakened for a fifth consecutive session, falling 0.7 percent to $2,206 an ounce, while copper held above $4.40 a pound on the LME. European natural gas at the Dutch TTF benchmark eased to 31 euros per megawatt-hour, a level not seen since early February, as LNG cargoes diverted during the war began arriving at northwest European terminals.

Corporate calendars elsewhere remain busy. Visa, Spotify, and Caterpillar are also due to report Tuesday, with Spotify in particular drawing attention after a price increase announced in February. In Europe, HSBC, BP and Mercedes-Benz are on Wednesday’s slate. International Energy Agency officials said an updated monthly oil market report scheduled for Tuesday afternoon Paris time would include revised demand estimates that account for both the ceasefire and the OPEC+ supply increase.