U.S. equity futures wobbled into the cash open Thursday as a mixed overnight haul of corporate earnings made clear that company guidance, rather than the receding Iran-Israel war, has become the dominant input for spring positioning. Tesla shares were indicated 6.8% lower in pre-market dealing after a softer-than-expected delivery outlook, while Bank of America and Lockheed Martin earnings drew calmer responses and held the broader tape close to unchanged.

S&P 500 futures were quoted 0.1% lower around 8:15 a.m. in New York, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.6% on the Tesla drag and Dow futures 0.2% higher on strength in financials and industrials. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.3% in midday trading. Brent crude was little changed near $94.20 a barrel after settling at $94.04 Wednesday, the lowest close of the year. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields edged up to 4.06%, while ten-year yields held near 4.30%.

“The market has been waiting for the moment when it could stop treating Hormuz tanker traffic as the only number that matters, and that moment is now,” said Camille Rondeau, head of cross-asset strategy at Lombard Odier in Geneva. “What we are seeing this morning is healthy: the war premium is out, and dispersion across single names is back. That is how a normal earnings season looks.”

Tesla’s report, released after Wednesday’s close, was the night’s main event. The electric-vehicle maker missed Wall Street consensus on automotive gross margin and cut its full-year delivery range by roughly 4%, citing softer Chinese demand and pricing pressure in Europe. Chief Executive Elon Musk used the call to focus on the company’s robotaxi roadmap and humanoid robotics program, which several analysts said failed to reassure investors looking for clearer guidance on the core auto business. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives called the report “a frustrating set-piece that left bulls and bears talking past each other.”

By contrast, Bank of America’s first-quarter results, posted before the open Wednesday and digested overnight, drew steadier reactions. Net interest income came in $400 million above consensus, investment-banking fees rose 23% year over year on a backlog that the company said had been “noticeably less affected by the geopolitical environment than feared in early March,” and the bank lifted its full-year NII guidance. Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick told analysts that loan-loss provisions related to energy and shipping exposures had been tightened during the quarter but were being “reviewed downward” now that the ceasefire was holding into its second week.

Lockheed Martin, another company whose tape had been distorted by the war, reported overnight that order intake reached a record $24.3 billion, with a sharp acceleration in Patriot, THAAD and Aegis-related munitions bookings from Gulf and European customers since mid-March. The defense contractor nonetheless trimmed its delivery guidance for the second half, citing rare-earth supply constraints and ongoing solid-rocket-motor bottlenecks. Shares were indicated 1.8% higher.

The cross-current that traders said most defined the tape was a steady drain of geopolitical premium from energy markets. Brent has now fallen for seven consecutive sessions, and most major banks have moved their second-quarter price decks below $95 a barrel. Goldman Sachs cut its end-of-quarter Brent forecast to $90 from $96 in a Wednesday-evening note, while JPMorgan moved to $88 from $94. “The OPEC+ technical committee meeting yesterday in Vienna did exactly what we expected: a lot of words, no action,” said Hossein Marvi, a Dubai-based energy consultant. “Delegates know that pulling barrels back this fast would be a political signal nobody wants to send while the ceasefire is still being stress-tested.”

Shipping markets continued to normalize. War-risk insurance premiums on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz were quoted at 0.42% of hull value Thursday, down from 0.65% on Sunday and a wartime peak of 2.5%, brokers at Howden said. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has fallen 17% since the ceasefire took effect April 15. Maersk and CMA CGM, which resumed normal Red Sea routings on Tuesday, reported a full first day without incident; rates on Asia-Europe lanes eased by 4% overnight on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.

Currency markets reflected the same drift away from haven trades. The dollar index slipped to 102.18, with the yen weaker for a sixth straight session at 153.40 per dollar and the Swiss franc on track for its worst week since January. Gold, which had been a clear beneficiary of war-risk hedging, was down $11 at $2,348 an ounce. Bitcoin held near $63,700, little changed.

Investors are now bracing for a heavy second half of the week. Boeing, AT&T and IBM report later Thursday, with Procter & Gamble, American Express and Verizon set for Friday. NVIDIA’s GTC keynote in late May has loomed as a longer-horizon catalyst for the chip complex, but a more immediate hurdle is the House Ways and Means vote on the AI moratorium bill, expected as soon as Thursday afternoon. “Semiconductors and cloud-software names will move 3% to 5% on that vote in either direction, and traders have been reluctant to commit capital ahead of the print,” said Tomas Veres, head of U.S. equity strategy at Morgan Stanley.

Some strategists cautioned that the calm tape could give way to renewed volatility if the AI vote went against the bill, given how heavily hyperscaler capex assumptions have been priced into 2026 earnings. “If the moratorium dies, you will get a relief rally in the hyperscalers and a ‘pay-up’ rotation back into AI infrastructure,” said Priya Madan, head of U.S. equity research at Janus Henderson. “If it survives the committee, you get the opposite. Either way, this is the swing factor for tech this quarter.”

Beyond Washington, the macro calendar Thursday includes weekly U.S. jobless claims, expected to print near 230,000, and existing-home sales for March, with consensus pointing to a modest pickup. Treasury Secretary Janet Reeves is scheduled to address the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Thursday evening, where officials said she would lay out the administration’s framework for coordinating post-war financial assistance with European and Gulf partners and outline next steps on any Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill.