Asian semiconductor and memory suppliers reported a sharp firming of hyperscaler order activity in the forty-eight hours following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, SK Hynix and several optical-networking vendors describing renewed pull from U.S. cloud buyers that had paused incremental commitments during the war and the Senate moratorium vote.

The shift, described to analysts on background calls Thursday and confirmed by three logistics executives in Taipei and Hsinchu, marks the first clear sign that the twin shocks that gutted second-half AI hardware guidance two weeks ago — a $125 Brent print and a 52-48 Senate vote for an 18-month compute pause — have begun to unwind in the order book even before either situation has been fully resolved.

TSMC, which fabricates the advanced graphics processors at the heart of every U.S. frontier training campus, told investors on a brief Thursday note that its high-bandwidth-memory-bonded AI packaging line had returned to “full booked status through the third quarter,” reversing language from an Apr. 9 call in which Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang had described “a wider band of uncertainty than previously communicated.” The company stopped short of restoring formal annual guidance, which it withdrew during the war.

SK Hynix, the South Korean memory specialist whose HBM3E stacks ship into nearly every Nvidia and AMD accelerator package destined for U.S. data centers, said in a regulatory filing in Seoul that contracted volumes for the second half had “stabilized at pre-conflict levels” and that one large U.S. customer had re-engaged on a previously deferred long-lead order. The filing did not name the customer; two industry officials with direct knowledge said it was one of the four hyperscalers that have been lobbying the House Ways and Means Committee against the moratorium.

“The pause button got pushed twice — once at $125 oil and once at fifty-two votes,” said Chen Wei-han, a Taipei-based semiconductor analyst at Yuanta Securities. “Both fingers came off the button the same week. Order desks are catching up.”

The recovery is not uniform. Optical-networking suppliers, which sell the high-speed transceivers that connect GPU racks into training clusters, said pull had returned for components shipping inside existing data center footprints but remained soft for greenfield projects whose grid permits could fall under the licensing regime in the Senate-passed bill. Coherent Corp., a Pittsburgh-based supplier with significant Asian manufacturing exposure, told a small-cap conference Wednesday that “campus-scale new-build” orders were still running below internal targets.

The asymmetry tracks the legislation’s structure. The bill, sponsored by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., pairs a moratorium on frontier-scale training runs with a federal licensing requirement for any new data center buildout exceeding 500 megawatts of contracted load. The House Ways and Means Committee is scheduled to begin markup Monday. A committee vote could come as early as Apr. 22.

ASML Holding, the Dutch supplier of the extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines that anchor every advanced fab, said in a separate update Thursday that machine deliveries scheduled for the second half remained “on plan” and that customer requests for slot deferrals had eased over the past week. Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet, speaking at an industry event in Veldhoven, said the company was watching the U.S. legislative process closely but had not adjusted its own multi-year planning. “Our customers build for a decade. They do not unbuild because of a quarter,” he said.

Investor reaction was strongest in Asian trading. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which had fallen 9.4 percent in the two weeks after the Senate vote, recovered most of those losses over Tuesday and Wednesday in U.S. trading, with Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron leading. In Taipei, TSMC’s American depositary receipts closed at their highest level since Mar. 28. SK Hynix’s Seoul-listed shares rose 4.1 percent Thursday.

The political overhang remains. Industry executives are bracing for next week’s House committee fight, and several lobbyists working the moratorium said they had been instructed not to declare victory regardless of order-book signals. “The bill can still pass committee,” said Marcus Lindgren, president of the American Compute Alliance, the trade group that has spent more than $42 million in district advertising since the Senate vote. “We do not assume otherwise. Until there’s a vote, we run it like it’s tied.”

Cybersecurity remains a parallel concern for the supply chain. Mandiant, the threat-intelligence arm of Google Cloud, said in a Thursday advisory that state-aligned Iranian cyber units had continued probing semiconductor and chemicals suppliers in Taiwan and Korea through the early hours of the ceasefire, with at least two intrusion attempts logged against advanced-node fab vendors. None of the attempts succeeded, the firm said. “Kinetic ceasefires do not extend to keyboards,” said Maya Rosenthal, Mandiant’s head of state-actor research.

Energy is also still a factor. Brent crude settled at $97.40 Thursday, down sharply from its March peak but well above pre-war levels, and Korean utility tariffs remain elevated. Several Korean memory executives said power costs at HBM packaging sites had risen enough over the war to compress unit margins by between 80 and 130 basis points, a hit they expect to take through at least the third quarter.

The next test will arrive next week, when U.S. hyperscalers begin reporting first-quarter earnings. Analysts said they expected commentary on AI capital spending to be deliberately cautious, with most chief executives likely to defer detailed second-half guidance until after the House Ways and Means vote.

“Everyone’s going to give the same answer,” said Hannah Pruitt, an analyst at the Aspen Strategy Group. “Demand is intact. Buildout is on plan. Specifics depend on Washington. The market has already priced that script. The question is what comes after the script.”

Industry officials said additional supplier updates would follow next week as second-quarter shipment plans firmed.