A short but consequential week opens for global markets on Monday, with Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter results, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s late-April meeting and a fresh round of Chinese credit and activity data all due within five sessions — and the S&P 500 sitting less than a percentage point from its pre-war high.

Traders returning Sunday night to a quiet weekend in the Gulf and a fourth consecutive week without a major ceasefire violation said the test now is whether the recovery rally that has carried equities back from the March lows can absorb a heavier calendar without giving back ground. Brent crude finished Friday at $89.05 a barrel, down for a sixth straight week and roughly 29 percent below the late-March peak of $125.40. West Texas Intermediate closed at $84.60. The S&P 500 ended the week at 5,531, leaving it 0.5 percent below its Feb. 28 close and just 1.1 percent shy of the all-time high it set on March 21, hours before the first Iranian volley.

“The market has done the easy part of the recovery,” said Daniel Whitaker, head of global asset allocation at Brentwood Trust in Boston. “What we get this week is the harder question — does the data confirm that the energy shock is actually washing out of the inflation numbers, and are companies in Asia and Europe seeing the same demand picture that the U.S. earnings calls have painted?”

The headline event for the energy complex arrives early. Saudi Aramco reports first-quarter results on Monday in Riyadh, the first major oil major to capture the full arc of the wartime price spike, the April 1 OPEC+ production hike of roughly 1.5 million barrels a day and the post-ceasefire slide. Analysts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights expect net income of about $26.4 billion, down from $27.3 billion a year earlier despite the higher average realized price, because of elevated security and logistics costs during the conflict and a one-time charge tied to damage at the Abqaiq processing complex from an April 6 Houthi cruise-missile strike. Investors will pay particular attention to guidance on capital spending and to any commentary from chief executive Amin Nasser on how quickly the kingdom expects to draw down the supply cushion.

“Aramco’s print is going to set the tone for the whole sector, but it’s also a referendum on whether the OPEC+ cushion stays in place or starts coming off in the second half,” said Helena Kostas, senior energy strategist at Argentum Research in London. “Every barrel they keep on the market is a barrel that keeps Brent below $95.”

Wednesday brings the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s April 28-29 meeting, which left the federal funds target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent for a fifth straight gathering. Chair Jerome Powell, in his post-meeting press conference, said policymakers were “watching the unwind of the oil shock with cautious optimism,” language that fed-funds futures traders read as opening the door to a July cut. Markets are now pricing roughly 62 percent odds of a quarter-point reduction at that meeting, up from 30 percent in early April, according to CME FedWatch. The minutes will be parsed for any dissent and for the range of internal views on whether the late-summer inflation prints will look closer to 2.4 percent or 2.8 percent year over year.

China weighs in on Friday with April aggregate financing, new yuan loans and the monthly batch of industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect new loans of about 940 billion yuan, well below the March figure of 3.09 trillion but in line with the soft seasonal pattern that prompted soft April data from the eurozone earlier this month. Industrial production is forecast to slow to 4.6 percent year over year from 5.1 percent, while retail sales are seen at 4.3 percent, an outcome that would extend a three-month run of below-trend prints.

“The China number is the biggest swing factor on the docket because it’s the one that hasn’t been pre-traded,” said Wen Li, chief Asia strategist at Pacific Rim Capital in Singapore. “Aramco we can model. The Fed minutes will mostly confirm what Powell said. But if loan growth comes in under 800 billion, you’re going to see the cyclical trade in copper, iron ore and the European luxury names start to wobble.”

The corporate earnings season, which has delivered first-quarter blended growth of 9.6 percent for the S&P 500 according to FactSet, enters its final stretch. Walmart, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Deere and Take-Two Interactive headline the U.S. calendar. In Europe, results from Allianz, Siemens, Richemont and Bayer will help fill out the picture from a region whose Stoxx 600 has lagged the U.S. recovery by about 2.5 percentage points since the ceasefire took effect on April 15. Japan’s Sony, SoftBank and Honda Motor also report, alongside a dense Hong Kong calendar that includes Tencent and Alibaba.

Geopolitics has receded as a daily driver but has not disappeared. The Doha mediation track between Iran and a U.S.-led coalition is scheduled to resume Tuesday on the inspection-and-verification protocol that underpinned the May 1 announcement of a 90-day ceasefire extension. International Atomic Energy Agency director general Rafael Mariano Grossi told reporters in Vienna on Friday that monitoring cameras at the Natanz and Fordow facilities had been operating “without interruption” for a week and that an initial inventory report would be circulated to the agency’s board “before the end of the month.” Markets have largely priced the talks succeeding; any setback would likely show up first in the front-month Brent curve and in regional credit-default-swap spreads, traders said.

In Washington, the Senate is expected to return Tuesday to debate on the wartime supplemental spending bill, which cleared a procedural vote on May 1. Treasury’s quarterly refunding auctions of three-year, 10-year and 30-year paper take place Tuesday through Thursday. Auction tails of more than two basis points on the long bond, given the size of the financing need behind the supplemental, would be the sort of event that “could wake the bond market up from its current nap,” said Whitaker.

Officials at several large banks said clients had largely concluded that the worst-case wartime scenarios were now behind them but that positioning remained lighter than usual heading into the data run. A clean week, they said, would likely be enough to push the S&P 500 to a fresh closing high before the May options expiry on Friday the 16th.